FULFILLING THE EXPORT POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE CONTEXT OF AGGRAVATING GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS

469 ISSN 2306-4994 (print); ISSN 2310-8770 (online) UDC 339.564:338.432 Al-Ababneh H. A. Ph. D. in Economics, Professor of the Department of Marketing, Faculty of Administrative and Financial Sciences, Irbid National University, Jordan; e-mail: hassanalialababneh@gmail.com; ORCID ID: 0000-0003-1136-8911 Osmonova A. Doctor of Economics, Professor, Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University Named after the First President of the Russian Federation B. N. Yeltsin, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; e-mail: krsuk@krsu.edu.kg Dumanska I. Doctor of Economics, Professor, Khmelnytskyi National University, Ukraine; e-mail: ilonadumanskaa@gmail.com; ORCID ID: 0000-0003-2449-0633 Matkovskyi P. Doctor of Economics, Professor, Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine; e-mail: ekondek@pnu.edu.ua; ORCID ID: 0000-0001-9470-9974 Kalynovskyy A. Ph. D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine; e-mail: andriikalynovskyi@lpnu.ua; ORCID ID: 0000-0001-7927-3033

Introduction and review of literature. One of the most difficult challenges today is to prevent the food crisis. According to UN experts, it is the worst in the last 50 years of human development and requires an immediate response from governments to avoid a catastrophe.
It should be noted that food security problems directly depend on the development of the agro-industrial sector, which is currently the basis for increasing its export potential, a factor in ensuring national food security and meeting public demand for major groups of agricultural products.
The food crisis is most often associated with the rapid growth of the world's population and the irrational use of natural resources, the decline in the level of ecologisation of economic development. Most countries focus on investing in profitable and fast-paying sectors of the economy, while the agricultural sector was financed mostly on a residual basis. In addition, there has been a tendency to reduce the area under crops suitable for growing food crops in recent years, while the cultivation of industrial crops used for biofuel production has become increasingly popular. All this contributed to the growth of the deficit of agricultural products and, as a consequence, to the increase of the price level for them. Thus, according to [1], prices have almost doubled in the last decade, making these groups of goods less accessible to low-income people.
In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation in this area worsened significantly, therefore it is fair to assume that over the next few years there will be a decline in food security in the world, accompanied by disruptions in food supply chains even in economically developed countries. In addition, the spread of the pandemic and the introduction of significant quarantine restrictions have led to a significant shortage of labour involved in agriculture in different countries, which could not but affect the yield, quantity and quality of harvested crops. The pandemic also significantly affected the development of animal husbandry, restricting free access to feed and veterinary drugs.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of the pandemic most countries have resorted to significant export restrictions in order to provide food for their domestic markets, which also significantly affected the international market and provoked supply disruptions and rising prices for agricultural products.
However, rethinking the strategic importance of each of the economic sectors of development and understanding the realities of today, an increasing number of countries urge the need to develop and promote the agro-industrial complex. In the context of such changes, appropriate agricultural programs, systems of financial incentives and support for farmers are being developed, which significantly affects the level of supply of agricultural products within individual countries. It is under such conditions that issues related to the development and effective use of the export potential of agricultural production become especially relevant.
Today, it is one of the independent elements of the country's export potential, which is able to increase the competitiveness of countries that have such potential and are able to use it effectively. In addition, there is a shift in economic emphasis in favour of stimulating the development of countries that have significant prerequisites for agricultural development, as well as developed logistics and marketing systems that allow creating reliable and uninterrupted food supply chains.
Thus, a rational approach to the use of the export potential of agricultural production will create the preconditions not only to overcome the negative effects of the food crisis, but also to equalize food security at the international level, and will balance foreign economic activity in this area.
The efficiency of export potential largely determines the financial stability of the state. In turn, this problem is especially important for agricultural producers, as modern globalization processes of the world economy have intensified competition in both foreign and domestic markets. European exports are the main form of fulfilling the export potential. Actually, the export potential of an agricultural producer characterizes the part of the production potential that can be directed to the creation of products to be sold in foreign markets.
The article of [2] proposed a classification and arranged a single system of factors influencing the export potential of agricultural companies. In particular, singling out integration as a separate group of factors is important for the fulfilment of their export potential.
The article of [3] identified the country's reputation as an important factor influencing export quality. The results of their research showed that the country's reputation has a positive and significant impact on the quality of exports. Based on research, it is substantiated that the rapid increase in population in general slows down agricultural production and exports of the country [4]. In developing countries, population growth rates are almost twice as high as in developed countries, which creates difficulties for agricultural production in these countries due to damage to the physical environment caused by population growth, and limits agricultural production opportunities for farmers [1].
Food security and supply is one of the global problems of mankind. The article of [5] covered the importance of farms in agriculture and their role in agricultural exports.
Foreign trade in agricultural and food products is a significant reflection of the economic situation observed in the current functioning of agriculture, food industry and certain types of trade in a particular country [6]. Thus, assessing the export potential of agricultural and food products in the Visegrad countries in 2005-2017, researchers proved that exports of agricultural and food products to the Visegrad countries are vulnerable to economic trends, there is a significant degree of competitiveness in exporting food products of animal origin to these countries, as well as the highest level of competitiveness of foreign trade in food products of plant origin in relation to cereals, while trade in fruits and vegetables is becoming less important.
In response to rising world prices for agricultural and food products, many countries have introduced controls on their agricultural exports, using taxes, quotas and total export bans. Besides, many countries have maintained export taxes not only on agricultural goods but also on forestry and fishery products, minerals, metals and precious stones over the past few decades [7].
Studying the export of agricultural and food products in Georgia [8] found that it is concentrated in a few goods and a few unpretentious markets, which makes it extremely vulnerable to a small number of commodity and geographic markets. At the same time, the diversity of climatic conditions and large water resources create a significant potential for growth and diversification of Georgian agriculture. Today, two main restrictions limit the export of agricultural and food products of Georgia: 1) the shortage of raw materials due to low agricultural productivity limits the number of goods available for export; 2) most export chains are poorly organized. Therefore, the government should encourage and support the establishment of agricultural clusters in the short term, potentially in the context of a broader initiative of agricultural and industrial clusters.
Pakistan is an agriculture-based country, so the agricultural sector is the backbone of the national economy. Given the national economy and the agricultural sector, it is necessary to focus on the export of agricultural products to improve the life of local farmers. A study conducted by [9] revealed short-term and long-term factors affecting agricultural exports.
The article of [10] explored the potential of agricultural exports in Nigeria, which is fulfilling it by exporting both traditional goods such as cocoa, rubber, palm products, cotton, hides, crafts and textiles, and non-traditional ones. The Federal Government of Nigeria prioritizes agricultural development through its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, which seeks to create new jobs in labour-intensive sectors, including agriculture, and turns the country into a powerful exporter of major crops, including rice, cashews, peanuts, vegetable oil and cassava. The government seeks to promote sustainable growth in both crop production and agricultural exports through a number of policies, including the development of key crop processing areas and reform of the quality control process. There are also huge opportunities for the development of non-traditional exports of products such as medicinal plants, snails, mushrooms, cultivated wildlife and more. It is reasonable to use the practice of other developing countries that the growth of agricultural exports should be based on turning medium-sized and large commercial companies into efficient small farms.
Agriculture also plays a crucial role in Iran's economy in terms of food security, job creation and foreign income. Using data for 38 destination countries from 1982 to 2017, [11] found a direct and significant impact of GDP and population of trading partners on Iran's agricultural exports, while distance and border barriers imposed by destination countries show significant reverse effect. Measures to promote competitiveness are recommended, along with free bilateral and regional trade agreements to remove border barriers.
The article of [12] covers the situation with Chinese agricultural exports from 2007 to 2016 and the problems of Chinese agricultural exports, as well as analyses the international multilateral system of environmental and ecolabelling of Chinese agricultural exports and the impact of these environmental regulations on exports. The authors conclude that international environmental regulation has a significant negative impact on Chinese agricultural exports.
The article of [13] introduced a standard cap index to study the impact of food safety standards on international agricultural exports. This standard limitation indicator is based on the use of maximum pesticide residue levels for 61 importing countries and 66 different products. The index takes into account both the amount of pesticides regulated for each product and the permissible level of these pesticides by each importer. The data obtained indicate that compliance with strict standards increases the fixed costs of exports to the destination.
An analysis of the Baltic countries by [14] showed that the realization of export potential also depends on the characteristics of agriculture and subsidies from EU funds, which are relatively low compared to the old EU member states. Besides, support for agriculture creates relatively unequal conditions of competition for other economic activities. As a result, it is doubtful whether the export of agricultural products contributes to the prosperity of the Baltic economy. A correlation and regression analysis was used covering data from 2000-2016 to achieve this goal -studying the links between agricultural exports and economic growth in the Baltic States. Empirical calculations have shown that the export of agricultural products (in some sections) contributes very little to the growth of GDP in the Baltic economies; however, this negatively affects labour market indicators (self-employment, employment in the land sector, the level of the labour market).
Fulfilling the export potential of agricultural producers is also influenced by integration processes. This conclusion is confirmed by [15]  The article of [16] emphasizes the obligation to restrict exports both within and outside the WTO. The article of [17] discusses why international commodity agreements are not an effective option to address food security issues on a multilateral basis, including the introduction of stricter rules on export restrictions. In principle, it is the activities of major grain countries, importers and exporters that have the greatest impact on international markets related to food security, which means that a voluntary binding agreement between a small group of largest producers, exporters and importers may be sufficient to obtain desired outcome [18].
The article of [19] studied the impact of the creation of the Common Economic Space in the Eurasian Economic Union on the creation of an effective competitive environment and ensuring the proper functioning of the common agricultural market.
Several researchers have studied the impact of economic integration on agricultural performance with different outcomes. Some studies revealed positive effects, while others found negative ones. However, some studies confirm a slight relationship between economic integration and agricultural performance. In particular, assessing the impact of the free trade area on the promotion of intra-regional trade, [20] confirms that free trade areas promote the export of agricultural products. Other studies by [21] indicate that economic integration is a strong driver of export efficiency, while an effective nominal exchange rate slows down agricultural exports. Other studies that report a negative correlation between exchange rates and agricultural exports include [22] in the case of Bangladesh, [23] in the case of Vietnam.
Thus, the issue of fulfilling the export potential of agricultural producers of different countries is widely represented in scientific publications, but the outlined topic requires current research on the development of agricultural exports.
The purpose of the article. The aim of the research is to study the nature, main trends and problematic aspects of fulfilling the export potential of agricultural production in the context of aggravating food crisis.
Research objectives: • determine the essence and features of the export potential of agricultural production at the international and national levels; • analyse the dynamics of consumption of the main groups of agricultural products in the world; • outline indicators that describe the export potential of agricultural production and allow assessing it; • study and identify current trends in fulfilling the export potential of agricultural production in the regional context; • identify problematic aspects of fulfilling the export potential of agricultural products; • outline the factors influencing the export potential and assess the level of their impact on the volume of exports of agricultural production; • provide analytical conclusions on fulfilling the export potential of agricultural production in the context of the global industrial crisis. Methods. Fig. 1 shows the research design in a generalized form. Given that the problem of fulfilling the export potential of the agricultural sector is global, OECD countries, North America, Europe, Africa, South America and Asia are selected as the object of study. This approach will allow a comprehensive study of the outlined issues. The main indicators to be used for the analysis are: imports, exports and foreign trade balance by major groups of agricultural products characterized by the highest level of consumption in the international market. The main methods used in this study are statistical analysis, index, graphical and analytical methods, methods for estimating structural dynamic shifts, comparisons and monographic method. The study also involved common methods of economic research, in particular: theoretical generalization and comparison, induction and deduction (when revealing the content of the export potential of agricultural production, drawing conclusions); synthesis and economic analysis (to assess the current state and development trends of agricultural exports); graphical, economicstatistical and interstate comparisons (for the analysis of agricultural exports); statistical groupings (to assess the domestic and external export potential of agricultural products in the regional context); economic and mathematical simulation (regression analysis) (to determine the impact of factors on wheat exports), etc.
For the purpose of statistical analysis, we used the macro function «Regression» of the MS Excel add-in Analysis Package, which allowed determining the influence off actors on the resultant value and to building the corresponding linear regression equation.
Results and discussion. Export potential is determined at the international level by significant competitive advantages for exporters and their ability to effectively use existing market opportunities. In numerical terms, it will be represented by the share of export products in the international market.
At the national level, this category should be considered as a set of opportunities and resources to increase agricultural production in order to carry out export operations, and will be expressed by the value of the foreign trade balance in the study area.
Fulfilment of the national export potential can become a solid background for the development of other sectors of the economy due to its diversification capacity. At the international level, export potential is one of the powerful tools for equalizing food security between countries.
The main factors influencing the export potential of agricultural production are the following: • geographical location of the country, its natural and climatic conditions; • social traditions of agricultural development; • availability of skilled labour for employment in agricultural production; • financial opportunities for the development of agricultural production; • effective regulatory framework in the field of export operations; • opportunities for diversification of agricultural production into other sectors of the economy; • credit support for the development of export potential of agricultural producers; • availability of standards for agricultural production and quality assurance of such groups of goods; • the ability of exporters to respond flexibly to changes in agricultural market conditions. Examining the export potential of agricultural production, it is necessary to analyse the consumption of the main groups of agricultural products per capita (Fig. 2), which will determine the priority of their exports. According to Fig. 2, it can be concluded that during 2014-2020 the priorities of consumption are stable, with wheat and sugar being in the greatest demand, and therefore these goods will have a higher export potential. This statement is supported by the data of Fig. 3, which illustrates the dynamics of exports of major groups of goods that were top in export operations during 2014-2020. It should be noted that the largest exports of certain goods dropped to 2016 and 2020. The structure of exports during the study period remains virtually unchanged.
In order to study the export potential in detail, we will analyse the exports volume of the main groups of agricultural products in the regional context, namely in the OECD countries, North America, Europe, Africa, South America and Asia. In this case, the main indicators that will be used for analysis are: imports, exports and foreign trade balance by goods ( Table 1).     According to Table 1, the following conclusions can be drawn. During the analysed period, OECD countries are characterized by a positive balance for all studied goods, except sugar. The situation is similar in South America, where the grain industry is in short supply, while other groups of goods are produced in surplus. As for North America, the balance for wheat and soya was positive during 2014-2020, while the balance for sugar and meat was negative. Europe is characterized by a predominance of exports of wheat, and from 2017 -sugar, while imports of soya and meat are significant during the study period. The data of Table 1 indicate the low export orientation of Africa and Asia. First of all, this can be explained by the peculiarities of natural and climatic conditions, which are decisive for the agricultural sector.
Let us analyse the situation on the international market for the main agricultural items, which will allow us assessing the external aspect of the export potential of each region. Fig. 4 shows wheat exports in a generalized form. According to the results, the leaders in the wheat export market are the OECD countries and Europe. At the same time, the largest volume of exports was in 2016, and the lowest -in 2018. African countries provide the smallest volume of wheat exports. As for soya exports, Fig. 5 shows that its largest representative on the international market is South America and with a significant gap between OECD countries. The peak periods of exports are 2019 and 2020. This trend can be explained by the popularization of soya not only as a food resource, but also its active use as a technical crop for the production of agricultural feed and biofuels.  Analysis of meat exports in 2014-2020 (Fig. 7) indicates that the OECD and South America are dominant in this market.  Thus, according to the results of the analysis, it should be concluded that the countries of South America, OECD, North America and Europe have the highest level of export potential. At the same time, African countries are import-dependent for all groups of studied agricultural products.
Analysis of domestic and foreign export potential of each region indicates that the export orientation of industries is largely determined by the favourable natural and climatic conditions for agricultural development, the established traditions of development of such industries and their type of market behaviour. Table 2 presents generalized results of research of internal and external export potential by regions. Table 2 Domestic and external export potential of agricultural products in the regional context

Product type
Internal export potential (positive balance of foreign trade) Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the export potential largely depends on the effectiveness of the development of its domestic component. However, according to Table 2, there is a situation when the region has a negative foreign trade balance, while providing a significant share of exports in the international market -this is a manifestation of the impact of economic activity of the countries in the region and their integration capacity in the context of minimizing the negative impact of the food crisis.

External export potential
Thus, in order to provide food security, it is advisable to develop measures aimed at agricultural efficiency, expansion and improvement of agro-industrial infrastructure, optimization of investment in export-oriented industries, taking into account domestic and foreign export potential of each country.
Let us analyse the impact of the following indicators on the wheat exports through the regression analysis: the area of sown land and the volume of consumption per capita. The calculations are based on the example of OECD countries, the leaders in wheat exports on the international market. Table 3 provides initial data for regression analysis. The results of the regression analysis are as follows ( Tables 4, 5).
The value of the multiple correlation coefficient indicates that the obtained econometric model adequately describes the studied economic dependence. 73% of variations in the change in the performance indicator depend on factorial attributes. Regression analysis indicates an inverse correlation between the exports volume and the consumption of wheat per capita, and a direct correlation between the effective value and the area of land used for wheat cultivation. Thus, the model envisages the need to regulate the self-production of countries in the context of the development of export potential and promote the optimization of the use of natural resources that are strategic for agricultural development.
Our results of the regression analysis of the impact of the sown land area and consumption per capita on the wheat exports volume are in line with a similar study conducted by [9]. Thus, they confirmed the short-term correlation between sown areas and crop production in terms of agricultural exports and between employment in agriculture and exports of agricultural products.
We agree with [25] expecting that fulfilling of the export potential of agricultural production during 2020-2021 will significantly transform in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular due to the impact of export bans imposed by some countries. Thus, the global food system will change significantly due to: reduced access to human resources (reduction of seasonal labour due to travel restrictions; staff morbidity and restrictions in public life); accumulation of stocks of agricultural products due to food insecurity, which is associated with the disruption of supply chains around the world; reducing demand for food due to reduced tourist flows; forced temporary shutdown of the economy, which led to a decrease in economic activity, a sharp rise in unemployment and, consequently, to a decrease in income, which may have an unpredictable impact on demand for agricultural products.
Thus, [26] analyse the impact of COVID-19 on world food markets. The initial shock caused by the pandemic is expected to result in decreased production of labour-intensive products due to morbidity and restrictions for workers. Importing countries, which are largely developing and least developed, are projected to suffer the most.
Despite requests from international organizations, governments and trade economists to refrain from imposing trade-distorting measures, more than 20 countries have introduced bans on agricultural and food exports since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis [25]. These export bans could adversely affect food security and disrupt established global supply chains.
The first attempt to quantify the effects of the current crisis in food markets was a study by the World Bank [26], which identified the directions of scientific research in this area. First, the COVID-19 industry impact analysis could be supplemented to take into account other factors that differ in the export of certain foods, such as differences in the sensitivity of time or in the production cycle of different crops. Similarly, the impact of supply shocks on prices will be mitigated by factors that vary by sector, such as the availability of buffer stocks. Second, the analysis is based on a partial equilibrium model, which does not consider the fact that food demand has also suffered from the crisis.
Therefore, it would be appropriate to adjust the results obtained in the study after the end of the pandemic for relevant data and to investigate the intensification of the food crisis in certain countries.
Conclusions. A single economic system is being formed in the context of globalization, which is characterized by asymmetric development of its elements due to the peculiarities and differences between countries in their integration process. The main objective is to ensure the effective functioning of economic systems and minimize the risks, as well as negative trends caused by global transformations. One of those urgent problems is to slow down and prevent the deepening of the global food crisis. It is necessary to study the export potential of agricultural production to ensure its acceptable level in the world. Thus, the processes of globalization and integration, as well as the pandemic intensify competition in the global food market.
Therefore, considering the fulfilment of their export potential the countries should identify measures to improve the efficiency of agricultural production, improve its logistics, investment support to increase competitiveness, intensify the sale of agricultural products to foreign economic entities.
The study found that during 2014-2020, the greatest export potential have such product groups as wheat and sugar. In general, trade is characterized as follows: • in OECD countries, South America is characterized by a positive balance for all surveyed goods except sugar. However, the grain industry is in short supply in South America; • in North America, the balance of wheat and soy was positive, while the balance of sugar and meat was negative; • Europe is characterized by a predominance of wheat exports, and since 2017 -sugar, while imports of soybeans and meat are significant; • African and Asian countries are characterized by low export orientation due to climatic conditions. Leaders in the wheat export market are the OECD and Europe, sugar in South America and Asia, and meat in the OECD and South America. At the same time, African countries are importdependent for all groups of studied agricultural products On the example of wheat exports, a study of the impact of domestic and external export potentials was found, according to which an inverse correlation was found between the volume of exports and wheat consumption per capita and a direct correlation between the effective value and the area of land used for growing wheat.
Therefore, a new direction of research may be the implementation of the above strategic areas and their effectiveness not only in agriculture but also in related industries, including engineering, food industry, other sectors of the economy, and the impact of the pandemic on the export potential of agricultural production. 26. Espitia A. l., Rocha N., Ruta M. COVID-19 and food protectionism: The impact of the pandemic and export restrictions on world food markets. Policy Research Working Paper. № 9253. Washington D. C. : World Bank, 2020. 30 p. Статтю рекомендовано до друку 08. 12.2021 © Аль-Абабне Х. А., Осмонова А., Думанська І., Матковський П., Калиновський А.