• O. Kuzmenko Sumy State University, Ukraine
  • S. Lieonov Sumy State University, Ukraine
  • M. Kashcha Sumy State University, Ukraine



COVID-19, epidemiological threats, retrospective portraits of regional vulnerability to COVID-19, step-by-step nonlinear regression, morbidity, regional morbidity differentiation, pandemic, multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity


According to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukrainian regions significantly differ in the population’s vulnerability to this infection. Specific patterns (combinations) of factors identify the reasons for regional differentiation of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. They were accumulated over a long period and formed the so-called «retrospective portraits of the region’s vulnerability to COVID-19» for each region. The main purpose of the study is to define such combinations of financial, economic, environmental and social factors causing many deaths and morbidity from COVID-19 among the population of different Ukrainian regions. The study is based on a constructed spatial nonlinear model. According to the step-by-step algorithm, individual factor variables are gradually added / removed from the model specifications by the Aitken method depending on their correlation with morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 in the region until the model’s specification with the highest adequacy by p-value and t-statistics is formed. The nonlinear multifactorial regression equations regarding the dependence of the resulting indicator (the level of morbidity and mortality of the region from COVID-19) on variables — 23 indicators of social, economic, environmental and financial development of each Ukrainian region and Kyiv are built for the creation of the «retrospective portraits of the region’s vulnerability to COVID-19». Besides, the correlation matrices and correlation pleiades are formed. Based on a correlation matrix, the multicollinearity test is performed using the Farrar — Glauber algorithm. The Durbin — Watson method checks residuals for autocorrelation. The heteroskedasticity test is performed using the Spearman rank correlation test. The empirical analysis results show that migration, population size, the environmental situation in the region, a significant index of medical institutions readiness for qualitative patient care during the pandemic and citizens’ income dynamics mostly affect the incidence of COVID-19 and the number of deaths. The retrospective research results can help create road maps of individual regions to overcome the future epidemiological influence effects.

Author Biographies

O. Kuzmenko, Sumy State University

Doctor of Economics, Professor,
Head of the Department of Economic Cybernetics

S. Lieonov, Sumy State University

Doctor of Economics, Professor,
Director of the Business Processes Department

M. Kashcha, Sumy State University

Ph. D. student of the Department of Economic Cybernetics


Abdalla, M. (2018). The Role Of Regional Planning In Achieving Economic Development And Social Justice In Sudan. Socio Economic Challenges, 4 (2), 101—113. doi:10.21272/sec.2(4).101-113.2018.

Albert, E., Boutelet, C., Piquer, I., Hivert, A. F., & Bonnel, O. (2020). Comment l’Europe tentedesauverson économie. Le Monde. Retrieved from

AUgbaka, M., Awujola, A., & Shcherbyna, T. (2019). Economic Development, Foreign Aid and Poverty Reduction: Paradigm in Nigeria. Socio Economic Challenges, 3 (4), 5—12. doi:10.21272/sec.3(4).5-12.2019.

Bagmet, K. V., & Haponova, O. (2018). Assessing the Impact on Social Sector: A Macroeconomic Approach. Socio Economic Challenges, 3 (2), 103—108. doi:10.21272/sec.3(2).103-108.2018.

Bilan, Yu., Vasilyeva, T., Lyeonov, S., & Bagmet, K. (2019). Institutional complementarity for social and economic development. Business: Theory and Practice, 20, 103—115. doi:10.3846/btp.2019.10.

Brychko, M., Kuzmenko, O., Polách J., & Olejarz, T. (2019). Trust cycle of the finance sector and its determinants: The case of Ukraine. Journal of International Studies, 12 (4), 300—324. doi:10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-4/20.

Tsentr medychnoi statystyky MOZ Ukrainy. (2009). Statystychni dani [Statistics]. Retrieved from

Dave, H. (2019). The X-ray report of «Economic growth». Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 3 (4), 89—93. doi:10.21272/fmir.3(4).89-93.2019.

Dutta, P., Dutta, U., Hasan, S., Sarkar, N., & Sana, T. (2020). Educate, Empower And Protect People Through Timely Authentic Information: Explore How Bangladesh Newspapers Response To COVID-19 Pandemic. Socio Economic Challenges, 4 (3), 94—104. doi:10.21272/sec.1(3).94-104.2020.

Faust, S. N., & Munro, A. P. S. (2020, September 25). It’s Time to Put Children and Young People First During the Global COVID-19 Pandemic. JAMA Pediatr. doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.4582.

Harafonova, O., Zhosan, G., & Akimova, L. (2017). The substantiation of the strategy of social responsibility of the enterprise with the aim of providing efficiency of its activities‎. Marketing and Management of Innovations, Vol. 3, ‏267—279. doi:10.21272/mmi.2017.3-25.

Hasan, S., & Dutta, P. (2019). Coverage of Environmental Issues in Local Dailies of Chattogram Centering World Environment Day. SocioEconomic Challenges, 3 (4), 63—71. doi:10.21272/sec.3(4).63-71.2019.

Hrytsenko, L., Roienko, V., & Boiarko, I. (2018). Institutional background of the role of state in investment processes activation. Financial And Credit Activity: Problems Of Theory And Practice, 1 (24), 338—344. doi:10.18371/fcaptp.v1i24.128465.

Ibragimov, Z., Lyeonov, S., & Pimonenko, T. (2019). Green investing for SDGS : EU experience for developing countries. Economic and Social Development: Book of Proceedings, 37th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development «SocioEconomic Problems of Sustainable Development», 868—877.

Jafarzadeh, E., & Shuquan, He. (2019). The Impact of Income Inequality on the Economic Growth of Iran: An Empirical Analysis. Business Ethics and Leadership, 3 (2), 53—62.

Kashyap, G. C., Puri, P., & Singh, S. K. (2020). Respiratory Health Upshots due to Contaminated Living Environment: A Cross-Sectional Study of the Industrial Belt of Kanpur City, India. Socio Economic Challenges, 4 (1), 17—27. doi:10.3139/124.110800.

Kaya, H. D. (2020). The Efficiency of the Financial System: A Comparison of Developed and Less Developed Countries. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 4 (2), 16—24. doi:10.21272/fmir.4(2).16-24.2020.

Lyeonov, S., Pimonenko, T., Bilan, Yu., Streimikiene, D., & Mentel, G. (2019). Assessment of Green Investments’ Impacton Sustainable Development: Linking Gross Domestic Product Per Capita. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Renewable Energy. Energies, Vol. 12, 1—12. doi:10.3390/en12203891.

Levchenko, V., Boyko, A., Bozhenko, V., Savchenko, T., Humenna, Y., & Pilin, R. (2019). State regulation of the economic security by applying the neoteric approach to its assessment. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 4, 364—372. doi:10.21272/mmi.2019.4-28.

Musa, H., Musova, Z., & Sliacky, P. (2017). Financial Support to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Slovakia. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 1 (4), 47—52. doi:10.21272/fmir.1(4).47-52.2017.

Marcel, D. T. Am. (2019). Impact of the Foreign Direct Investmenton Economic growth on the Re-public of Benin. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 3(2), 69—78. doi:10.21272/fmir.3(2).69-78.2019.

Masharsky, A., Azarenkova, G., & Oryekhova, K. (2018). Аnti-crisis financial management on energy enterprises as a precondition of innovative conversion of the energy industry: case of Ukraine. ‎Marketing and Management of Innovations,

Vol. ‏ 3, ‏345—354.

Moore, J. T., Ricaldi, J. N., & Rose, C. E. (et al.). (2020). Disparities in Incidence of COVID-19 Among Underrepresented Racial, Ethnic Groups in Counties Identified as Hotspots. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6933e1.

Oliinyk, V., Wiebe, I., Syniavska, O., & Yatsenko, V. (2018). Optimization model of Bass. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Vol. 8, 62, 2168—2183.

Papo, D., Righetti, M., Fadiga, L., Biscarini, F., & Zanin, M. (2020). A minimal model of hospital patients’ dynamicsin

COVID-19. Chaos Solitonsand Fractals, 140, 1—6. doi:10.1016/j.хаос.2020.110157.

Rajan, D. (2018). Personal and Social Perception of Occupational Hazards by Health Care Workers: A Study among Radiographers. Business Ethics and Leadership, 2 (4), 46—63. doi:10.21272/bel.2(4).46-63.2018.

Shammi, M., Bodrud-Doza, M., Islam, A., & Rahman, M. M. (2020). Strategic assessment of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh: comparative lockdown scenario analysis, public perception, and management for sustainability. Environment Development and Sustainability, Vol. 7, 1—44. doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0550.v1.

Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. (n. d.). Statystychni dani [Statistics]. Retrieved from

Vasilyeva, T., Kuzmenko, O., Bozhenko, V., & Kolotilina, O. (2019). Assessment of the Dynamics of Bifurcation Transformations in the Economy. SHS Web of Conferences 2422 The 8th International Conference on Monitoring. Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy, M3E2, 134—146. doi:10.1051/shsconf/20196504006.

Vasilieva, T., Lieonov, S., Makarenko, I., & Sirkovska, N. (2017). Sustainability information disclosure as an instrument of marketing communication with stakeholders: markets, social and economic aspects. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 4, 350—357. doi:10.21272/mmi.2017.4-31.

Vasylieva, T., Vorontsova, A., Bilan, Y., Ostasz, G., & Mayboroda, T. (2020). The influence of state regulation of education for achieving the sustainable development goals: case study of Central and Eastern European countries. Administratiesi Management Public, 34, 6—26. doi:10.3390/SU11061528.

Vasilyeva, T., Mentel, G., Samusevych, Ya., & Pryymenko, S. (2018). Regional differentiation of electricity prices: social-equitable approach. International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management, 21, 354—372. doi:10.1504/IJETM.2018.100583.

Vasylieva, T., Lyeonov, S., Lyulyov, O., & Kyrychenko, K. (2018). Macroeconomic Stability and Its Impact on the Economic Growth of the Country. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 14 (1), 159—170. Retrieved from

Viner, R. M., Mytton, O. T., & Bonell, C. (et al.). (2020, September 25). Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Children and Adolescents Compared With Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. JAMA Pediatr. doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.4573.

Yunpeng, J., Zhongren, M., Maikel, P., & Qiuwei, P. (2020). Potential association between COVID-19 mortality and health-care resource availability. The Lancet Global Health, Vol. 8, 480—481. doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30068-1.

Yelnikova, J., & Kwilinski, A. (2020). Impact-Investing in The Healthcare in Terms of the New Socially Responsible State Investment Policy. Business Ethics and Leadership, 4 (3), 57—64. doi:10.21272/bel.4(3).57-64.2020.




How to Cite

Kuzmenko, O., Lieonov, S., & Kashcha, M. (2020). FINANCIAL, ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL DETERMINANTS FOR UKRAINIAN REGIONS DIFFERENTIATION BY THE VULNERABILITY LEVEL TO COVID-19. Financial and Credit Activity: Problems of Theory and Practice, 3(34), 270–282.



The models and process technology of the financial information