DEMAND FACTORS FOR BANKING LOANS IN UKRAINE: MODELING AND ASSESSMENT
The article presents the results of modeling and assessment of the effects of demand factors for banking loans by business entities and households on the volume of bank loaning in Ukraine.
The article summarizes the factors influencing on volume of banking loans according to the demand side of business entities and households; performed modeling based on statistical data for Ukrainian practice in the period from 2006 to 2020.
The authors developed a VAR-model for estimating the factors influencing the banking loans demand by business entities. According to the constructed model, it is concluded that the change in demand for credit resources by business entities is due to changes in interest rates (by 30%), changes in industrial production index (15.6%), changes in PFTS index 10.7%), change in the price index of industrial producers (1.0%), change in themselves over time (42.5%).
The authors also developed a VAR-model for estimating the factors influencing the banking loans demand from households. According to the constructed model, it is concluded that the change in demand for credit resources by households is due to changes in average wages (16.2%), changes in interest rates (16%), changes in expenditures (8.2%), changes in GDP (7.7%), the consumer price index (6.9%), the change in the number of registered unemployed (2.9%) and the change in themselves over time (42.1%).
The obtained results can have practical application both within the formation of banking loan policy and within state regulation measures to influence the activation of the credit sector in the country.
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Copyright (c) 2021 S. Hlushchenko , V. Shportyuk
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