MIGRATION PROCESS IN UKRAINE: THE FINANCIAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS
Abstract. The paper is focused on identifying interlinks between migration growth and economic development indicators. The main idea is to check the statements that migrants move to the countries with high levels of urbanization, high export-import, and budget potential, social, economic, and infrastructural development, high rates of innovations, accessible and effective health care system, financial stability.The previous studies in the sphere of migration were analyzed in detail, and their outcomes became a starting point for selection of the parameters that may affect the net migration growth.
The paper is designed as quantitative research, based on Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Maps (FCM) modeling for mapping the most influential parameters of nine systems (concepts) of national economic development and migration growth.
In this study the matrices of causality and directions of influence of parameters of the nineconceptsand 53 sub-concepts and migration growth were computed, and cognitive maps of causal links between net migration growth and chosen parameters of national development were visualized.
It was found that the highest level of positive interaction exists between net migration growth and such indicators as «International Tourism», «Income», «Total Government Spending», «Birth rates», «GDP per capita». And negative interactions were found between migration growth and risk of not covering the expenditures of surgical care, including catastrophic non-coverage, and mortality. The recommendations for further improvements of migration policy, social policy and budgeting policy were offered.
Keywords: migration, net migration growth, national development, fuzzy cognitive maps, FCM modelling, determinants.
JEL Classification F22, J01, O15
Formulas: 3; fig.: 11; tabl.: 17; bibl.: 45.
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Copyright (c) 2021 О. Люльов, Т. Пімоненко, Г. Швіндіна, Д. Пудрик
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